Next Year: 2009 Rays vs. 1970 Mets

From worst to first. The 2008 Tampa Bay Rays remind a lot of sports fans out there of the 1969 New York Mets. Both teams incredibly went from laughing stocks of their respective leagues to the World Series in a matter of a single season. In fact, neither franchise finished a single season above the .500 marker before their remarkable runs at the Fall Classic. And as Bob Kimball of USA Today points out, the similarities go much further than that. A lot of talk has circultated throughout the league drawing on these comparisons between two young teams that took the majors by storm during their own memorable seasons. In order to truly match the '69 Mets however, the Rays need to beat the Philadelphia Phillies in the World Series. Facing elimination tonight against Cole Hamels in Philadelphia, the Rays have a tough hill to climb if they wish to escape their 3-1 series hole, but as this year has emphasized, the Rays cannot be counted out until the final out is made. While the comparisons between the two teams are stunning, many people forget this relationship when they mention the possibility of a Rays' dynasty. If the 2008 Rays are like the '69 Mets, then next year will present the Rays with anything but the makings of a dynasty. While most people are focusing on this season, and rightfully so because the Rays are still vying for a championship, I am going to jump ahead and look at the 2009 Rays to see if they will suffer the same fate as the 1970 Mets.

After finishing the 1969 season with 100 wins against 62 losses and a World Series title, the 1970 Mets regressed in the pitching department. While pitching that included young flamethrowers Tom Seaver and Nolan Ryan remained the teams strength, the overall staff was not as good as the '69 team. After allowing 541 runs to opponents in 1969, the 1970 Mets gave up 630 runs - a huge difference for a team whose offense was not built to out-slug opposing pitchers. Consequently, the team suffered. Rather than build on their success together as a young team from the year before, the Mets struggled with consistency both offensively and defensively and finished the season in third place in the N.L. East with a record of 83-79. The Pittsburgh Pirates won the division that season, and the Mets would not see another postseason appearance until 1973, when they would fall at the hands of the Oakland Athletics in game seven of the World Series.

What happened to the 1970 Mets? They were an established, young unit with the bulk of the team returning from 1969, but the end result was anything but the same as the year before. The young pitchers couldn't string together another stellar season. The 2008 Rays may suffer a similar setback after the team's 97-win campaign. While the Rays offense is not nearly as terrible as the Mets was - the Rays did score 774 runs this season - the team still relies heavily on its young pitching. After all, the Rays have had a fairly strong offense for the last three seasons, but not one season has amounted to a playoff birth because of the team's poor pitching. But this season, with the acquisition of SP Matt Garza and the emergence of SP James Shields behind ace Scott Kazmir, the team boasted its best starting rotation in the franchise's 10-year history. Garza, Shields and Kazmir anchored a staff that had a collective 3.82 ERA and allowed only 618 earned runs. The question is, can these young pitchers do it again? One of the hardest things to predict in Major League Baseball is how a young pitcher will perform from one year to the next. If Garza, Shields or Kazmir regress next season, the Rays would be put into a very difficult position while trying to fend off their A.L. East foes. In all likelihood, another A.L. East crown would not happen. Another main asset to this year's team has been its bullpen. Once looked at as the team's biggest weakness, the Rays bullpen pieced together a strong season in large part due to the acquisitions of closer Troy Percival and set-up man Dan Wheeler. But a big question mark surrounds Percival next season. After already suffering through injury problems in 2008, Percival will be approaching 40 years old midway through next season, and its rare 40-year-old closers can stay healthy and dominate a league. Losing Percival or another piece to that bullpen could greatly hinder the Rays run at another postseason appearance in 2009.

While question marks will always surround young pitchers, I firmly believe this team's hitting will remain a strength and continue to improve. With young phenoms such as 3B Evan Longoria, CF B.J. Upton, LF Carl Crawford and C Dioneer Navarro, the Rays' offense can be a force to be reckoned with in the years to come. However, these young players will have to make adjustments as opposing pitchers change their approaches when facing Tampa. Also, the biggest factor for me is whether or not Longoria can avoid the troublesome sophomore slump. Many hitters burst onto the scene during their rookie season, then fall off the map the next because they cannot adjust to pitchers' adjustments. But that is what baseball is: It's a game of adjustments. If Longoria fails to remain consistent at the plate, the team will lose a cog in its lineup and will not come close to making the playoffs next season.

Lastly, and this point goes beyond 2009, is that in order for the Rays to form a dynasty and have more success than the Mets of the '70s, they will need to resign their young studs - a major hurdle for the organization. The 2008 Rays' payroll is the second lowest in the majors at just over $43 million. That kind of payroll will not cut it when the Rays' young stars enter free agency. In order to truly build a dynasty, management needs to keep this team's core intact, but with high-spending teams like the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, New York Mets and Detroit Tigers, it will be difficult for the Rays to sign their players unless they fork up the big bucks. A lot of the blame for the lack of a team budget can fall on the fans who never filled Tropicana Field this year while the Rays were enjoying their wild ride to the top. Fan attendance averaged at just over 21,000, barely half the capacity in Tampa. Then again, fans can blame a management that fails to go after any big-name stars to bolster their squad. All I know is one thing is certain. The Rays in 2009, 2010 and 2011 will not be nearly as successful as the magical 2008 club unless they lock up some players. If they fail to perform that task, they'll be back in the A.L. East cellar for another possible 10 years.

Double Trouble: Mets Collapse Again

Last week, I questioned Doug Melvin's decision to fire Milwaukee Brewers' manager Ned Yost with just 12 games left in the regular season, and I stand by my opinion when I say it was a terrible and disrespectful move for the organization. It was a slap in the face to a man who was apart of Brewers' history, and it could have resulted in a costly distraction to players. The Brewers officially clinched a playoff birth yesterday with their 3-1 victory over the Chicago Cubs on the final day of the regular season, but it had more to do with the New York Mets' collapse than anything else. This year, the Mets held a three-and-a-half game lead in the NL Wild Card with 17 games left, and they blew their chances on a trip to the post season due to their second consecutive September collapse. I searched the blogosphere to find some in-depth analyses as to why the Mets won't be playing in October, and I came across two posts that I commented on. The first one was entitled "Torch Song", published by long-time professional journalist and radio broadcaster Jeff Kallman. His most recent post regarding the Mets collapse on his blog titled The MLB Source, presented the argument that the Mets' collapse should not only be attributed to the terrible relief pitching but should also linked to the team's lack of hitting down the stretch. Kallman also argued Johan Santana was really the true ace everyone was looking for, whether they saw it or not. The second post was entitled, "FINAL: Mets Miss the Playoffs With 4-2 Defeat to the Marlins", published by New York Times' reporter Joshua Robinson. The blog can be found NYTimes.com "Baseball" section of the site. This post provided an exciting inning-by-inning account of the Mets' final game and made readers feel as if they were apart of the action. In addition to publishing my comments directly on these blogs, I have also posted my comments below.

"Torch Song"
My Response:

Thank you for writing a well-constructed post regarding the New York Mets’ second collapse in as many seasons. You clearly watched games as more than just a fan and made the judgments in your mind of how the Mets could have done something differently to either win their division or fend off the Milwaukee Brewers and keep their lead in the NL Wild Card. I believe your first paragraph sets a great tone for your post. “This time, [the Mets] didn’t blow a seven-game divisional lead by going 5-12 in their final seventeen … This time, they blew a mere three-and-a-half game divisional lead and went 7-10 in the final seventeen.” I like how your opening paragraph humorously points out this Mets’ collapse this year may not be comparable to last year, but it’s just as sloppy and disgraceful for the organization. One aspect of the collapse I felt you could have expanded on was the horrendous individual work of the Mets’ bullpen. Rather than focusing on the games they blew for ace Johan Santana, which, I’ll admit, I had no idea he could have won between 23 and 27 games this season, I would have liked to see more commentary on the fact that the relievers were all basically lefty of righty specialists and couldn’t get through a clean inning to save their life during September. Once closer Billy Wagner got injured for the Mets in August, their season slowly began deteriorating, and that’s something I feel you left out. In addition, I would have liked to get some of your insight of the upcoming plans for the Mets. Management just signed general manager Omar Minaya to a four-year extension, whether he deserved it or not for putting together two straight teams that have collapsed, and I would like to get your insight to what the organization’s off-season plans might hold to right the ship. Will they go after another big name free agent like a A.J. Burnett or CC Sabathia? Will they make another big trade like they made last season? Or do you think they will they sit tight and try to win with what they have?

"FINAL: Mets Miss the Playoffs With 4-2 Defeat to the Marlins"
My Response:

First off, I would like to thank you for writing a post that was different from any other account I've read about the Mets' second-straight collapse. Reading this post almost felt as if I was at the final game at Shea Stadium, and I could feel the crowd. It was a very fun read, especially because you kept going back and forth between the Brewers' game and the Mets' game. One of the most crucial points you hit on during the third inning of your post was when you wrote, "It already has the feel of a game that will be won and lost by the bullpens, which is never a good sign for the Mets." And eventually, the bullpen blew yet another game during the Mets' dismal September collapse. Reading through your post, I found it interesting that you focused most of your blame for the team's loss today solely on the bullpen, when the offense failed to show up at all. Despite Carlos Beltran's game-tying home run, the offense produced nearly nothing during the team's most important game of the season. Coming into the game, you even pointed out the Mets' opposing pitcher Scott Olsen had little success in his 12 career starts against New York, going 1-5 with a 4.89 E.R.A. The Mets should have put more runs across the board, but they didn't, which resulted in a lot of pressure placed on the relievers heading into the later innings, and they gave up two runs that would ultimately end the Mets' season. One more area I think you could have expanded on were the players' reactions during the game. Because I am reading the recap and not watching the game, I need as much detail as I can get to picture it in my mind. While you did a great job with the fans' emotions, I would have liked to picture the players' emotions as well. Lastly, I have some questions for you regarding Mets' interim manager Jerry Manuel. Do you think he is responsible for the collapse this season? Could he have done anything differently? And, do you think he will be back in 2009?